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19-Mar-2026

Steel Sector Outlook CY26: Demand Divergence Amid Export Surge and Price Volatility

India leads demand recovery while weak Chinese consumption drives elevated exports, pressuring prices. Improving trade balance, easing imports, and infrastructure push offer support, though near-term demand gaps and pricing volatility persist.


'Jindal Steel delivered a presentation that addresses the steel demand supply cycle.

Considering CY26 demand outlook, India continues to lead while China’s exports are at a record as production continue to outpace demand. China’s domestic demand remains weak; exports stay elevated, keeping prices subdued.

Crude steel/finished steel production grew 2%/0.6% on a QoQ basis. Flat steel/Long steel production was up 0.7%/0.4% during the same period. Long steel consumption increased by 2.7% while Flat steel consumption declined 6.5% QoQ. Exports increased 30% QoQ, led by an 81% increase in HRC. Share of flat steel in total exports remained stable sequentially at 72%. Italy, UK Belgium, Spain and Nepal were the top 5 destinations accounting for 47% of total exports. India turned net exporter of steel in Q3FY26 after six quarters.

Imports declined 36% QoQ, driven by a sharp 34% decrease in flat steel imports. Imports from FTA countries/China declined 33%/32% driving the tot...



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