The domestic stock market's upward momentum is expected to persist into the coming week, fueled by a robust underlying trend. Optimism has been reignited by the US Federal Reserve's indication of potentially two interest rate cuts this year, a development that has positively impacted domestic market sentiment. Adding to this bullish outlook is the resurgence of foreign fund inflows into the cash market over the past two trading sessions, further boosting investor confidence.
Technically, the Nifty index is demonstrating a continuation of its short-term uptrend, now advancing towards its next resistance level, the 200-day simple moving average, positioned near 24,068.94. Immediate support for the index is observed around the 23,000 level, while short-term resistance is identified near 23,521.97, coinciding with the 100-day simple moving average.
However, it is worth noting that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers in the secondary market during March 2025, with sales totaling Rs 36,675.15 crore, according to NSDL data. This follows a substantial outflow of Rs 41,748.97 crore in February 2024.
Domestic Cues:
HSBC India Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash data for March will release on Monday, 24 March 2025.
The HSBC India Composite PMI stood at 58.8 in February 2025, below the flash figure of 60.6 but higher than January's reading of 57.7. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.3 in February 2025, below initial estimates of 57.1 and January’s 57.7. The HSBC India Services PMI was revised lower to 59.0 in February 2025 from 61.6 in the flash reading.
Global Cues:
US United States Durable Goods Orders data for February will release on Wednesday, 26 March 2025. New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US rose 3.1% month-over-month to $282.3 billion in January 2025, the most in six months and above market expectations of a 2% increase. It follows a downwardly revised 1.8% drop in December.
United States gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (QoQ Final Q4) will release on Thursday, 27 March 2025. US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter (Q4) last year, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In Q3, it increased by 3.1%.
United States Core PCE Price Index MoM data for February will release on Friday, 28 March 2025. The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in January 2025, picking up slightly from the 0.2% in the earlier month. Annually, the core PCE inflation rate slowed to 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
United States Personal Income data for February will release on Friday, 28 March 2025. US personal income rose soared by 0.9% from the previous month to $25.345 trillion in January of 2025, picking up from the 0.4% increase in the previous month.
United States Personal Spending data for February will release on Friday, 28 March 2025. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the United States fell by 0.2% month-on-month in January 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in December.