The domestic equity market are expected to remain cautious in the coming week as investors weigh ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Market sentiment is likely to remain fragile amid uncertainty on the diplomatic front, with traders adopting a wait-and-watch approach.
Profit booking may persist following the recent sharp rally. After a swift rebound from previous lows triggered by global tariff concerns, indices now appear technically overstretched, prompting many investors to pare down risk and reduce positions.
On the technical front, sustaining above the 23,800 level will be critical for the Nifty50 to maintain its bullish undertone. A failure to hold above this threshold could accelerate further profit-taking and short-term volatility.
Despite near-term caution, long-term investors are advised to adopt a 'buy-on-dips' strategy, given India’s strong economic fundamentals and improving global positioning.
In a positive signal, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have returned to Indian equities, injecting Rs 27,649.08 crore in the last seven trading sessions. This comes after months of consistent outflows since the market correction began in October last year.
Looking ahead, the Q4FY25 earnings season is expected to be a key driver of market direction. Corporate performance, alongside geopolitical developments, will likely guide investor sentiment in the days to come.
Domestic Cues:
India's industrial production data for March will release on Monday, 28 April 2025. India's industrial production growth decelerated sharply to 2.9% year-on-year in February 2025, down from an upwardly revised 5.2% in January.
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (Final) for April is scheduled for release on Friday, 2 May 2025. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 in April 2025 from 58.1 in the previous month, according to preliminary estimates.
Global Cues:
United States Job Openings (JOLTs) data for March will release on Tuesday, 29 April 2025. The number of job openings decreased by 194,000 to 7.568 million in February 2025 from an upwardly revised 7.762 million in January.
China NBS Manufacturing PMI data for April will release on Wednesday, 30 April 2025. China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in March 2025 from 50.2 in the previous month, aligning with market expectations.
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for April will release on Wednesday, 30 April 2025. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March 2025, up from February’s 50.8, surpassing expectations of 51.1.
United States Core PCE Price Index MoM for March will release on Wednesday, 30 April 2025.
The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% month-over-month in February 2025, the largest increase since January 2024. This was up from 0.3% in January.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision is on Thursday, 1 May 2025. BoJ kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0.5% during its March meeting, maintaining it at its highest level since 2008.
Japan consumer confidence data for April will release on Thursday, 1 May 2025. The consumer confidence index in Japan dropped to 34.1 in March 2025 from a downwardly revised 34.8 in the previous month, declining for the fourth straight month and reaching its lowest level since March 2023.
United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April will release on Thursday, 1 May 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in March 2025 from 50.3 in February.
United States non farm payrolls data for April will release on Friday, 2 May 2025. The US economy added 228K jobs in March 2025, well above a downwardly revised 117K in February.
United States unemployment data for April will release on Friday, 2 May 2025. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March 2025, the highest level since November and slightly above market expectations of 4.1%.