The domestic equity benchmarks opened higher but closed with minor losses on Monday amid a volatile session. The Nifty closed below the 22,120 mark after hitting the day's high of 22,261.55. While IT and metal stocks offered support, oil & gas and financial services stocks weighed on the indices. Initial optimism from India's stronger-than-expected Q3 FY25 GDP growth faded as global trade uncertainties dampened sentiment.
The S&P BSE Sensex fell 112.16 points, or 0.15%, to 73,085.94. The Nifty 50 index shed 5.40 points, or 0.02%, to 22,119.30.
Reliance Industries (down 2.38%), Bajaj Finserv (down 1.86%) and HDFC Bank (down 1.72%) were major drags.
In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 0.25% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.70%.
The market breadth was weak. On the BSE, 1235 shares rose and 2852 shares fell. A total of 147 shares were unchanged.
The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, fell 1.06% to 13.76.
Economy:
India’s real GDP picked pace sequentially to grow 6.2% in October-December 2024 (Q3 of 2024-25 or FY25) compared with 5.6% in July-September 2024 (Q2), aided by accelerating consumption demand, quarterly GDP estimates released by the National Statistics Office showed Friday. In Q3 of 2023-24, the GDP had grown 9.5%.
For the full financial year FY25, the GDP growth rate, as per the second advance estimates, is seen marginally higher at 6.5% as against the 6.4% in the first advance estimates released in January.
India's fiscal deficit touched 74.5% of the annual target at the end of January 2025, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). In actual terms, the fiscal deficit was Rs 11,69,542 crore during the April- January 2024-25 period. The deficit was 63.6% of the Revised Estimates (RE) of 2023-24 in the year-ago period.
India's gross GST collections rose by 9.1% to about Rs 1.84 lakh crore in February, boosted by domestic consumption and indicating a potential economic revival.
The production growth in India's eight key infrastructure sectors grew by 4.6% year-on-year in January, slightly slower than the 4.8% growth recorded in December, according to official data released on Tuesday. The performance of key sectors showed mixed results, with energy-related industries, in particular, facing slowdowns.
India’s manufacturing growth fell in February, after rising to a six-month high in January, as sales and output growth retreated to a 14-month low, a private survey released on Monday said.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.3 in February from 57.7 in January. It was 56.4 in December and 56.5 in November.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion, and below that indicates a contraction. The February PMI number was based on responses from 400 manufacturers.
FIR against ex-SEBI chief:
A special court has directed the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) to register a first information report (FIR) against former SEBI chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch, the whole-time members of the market regulator, and two BSE officials on charges of alleged stock market fraud, regulatory violations, and corruption linked to the listing of a company in 1994. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) said it would take legal steps to challenge the order. The order comes just two days after Buch completed her tenure as SEBI chief.
Numbers to Track:
The yield on India's 10-year benchmark federal paper was up 1.86% to 6.848 as compared with previous close 6.723.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 87.3400, compared with its close of 87.3700 during the previous trading session.
MCX Gold futures for 4 April 2025 settlement rose 0.63% to Rs 84,804.
The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.56% to 107.01.
The United States 10-year bond yield rose 0.64% to 4.256.
In the commodities market, Brent crude for May 2025 settlement shed 22 cents, or 0.30% to $72.59 a barrel.
Global Markets:
European stocks traded higher on Monday as Euro zone inflation eased to 2.4% in February as against 2.5% reading of January according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat.
Accounts from the central bank’s January meeting last week showed that policymakers believed inflation was on its way to meeting the 2% target, despite some lingering concerns.
Investors awaited earnings reports from Euroapi and Bunzl, the latest consumer price index is set to release ahead of the European Central Bank interest rate decision on Thursday.
Asian stocks ended mixed as investor’s awaited clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs this week on key trading partners.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced via social media that five digital assets—Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano—are set to be part of this reserve, fueling a surge in crypto prices.
Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing purchasing manager's index reading for February came in at 50.4, similar to the previous month's 50.6 reading.
Meanwhile, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.8 in February, beating expectations of 50.4 and rising from January’s 50.1. This marks the index’s largest jump since November and its fifth consecutive month of expansion, signaling steady economic momentum.
Geopolitical tensions remained in focus as European leaders drafted a Ukraine peace plan for the U.S., following a tense Oval Office exchange between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Concerns about the U.S. economy deepened with a string of weak data points, pushing the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker to an annualized -1.5% from +2.3%, fueling recession fears.
Adding to market jitters, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will take effect Tuesday, March 4, 2025. While an initial 25% tariff was proposed, Lutnick indicated that Trump will finalize the exact rates on Tuesday—alongside a fresh 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
With the January U.S. payrolls report set for release Friday, investors are watching closely. A weaker-than-expected job number could boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates three times this year.
Despite a brief stumble, Wall Street ended Friday on a high note. The S&P 500 jumped 1.59%, the Nasdaq surged 1.63%, and the Dow Jones gained 1.4% as traders brushed off geopolitical anxieties following the fiery Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.
In individual stocks, Dell tumbled over 4% after warning of a decline in adjusted gross margin for its 2026 fiscal year.
On the economic front, the PCE price index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—rose 0.3% in January, matching December’s pace. Year-over-year, inflation eased slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also increased 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-on-year dip to 2.6% from December’s 2.9%.
However, despite this moderation in inflation, consumer sentiment declined by 0.2% in January—its first drop in nearly two years, raising concerns about spending trends ahead.
Auto Sales Impact:
Bajaj Auto fell 2.48%. The company reported 2% increase in total auto sales to 3,52,071 units in February 2025 as against 3,46,662 units in February 2024.
Ashok Leyland declined 1.8%. The company reported 2% rise in total commercial vehicle sales to 17,903 units in February 2025 from 17,632 units sold in February 2024.
Steel Strips Wheels (SSWL) fell 2.4%. The company reported a net turnover of Rs 407.74 crore for February 2025, registering 18.88% YoY growth compared to Rs 342.98 crore posted in February 2024.
SML Isuzu jumped 7.8% after the vehicle manufacturer said that it has sold 1,288 units in February 2025, registering a growth of 27.5% from 1,010 units sold in the same period last year.
Eicher Motors rose 2.97% after the company’s unlisted subsidiary, VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV), reported a 9% year-on-year growth in commercial vehicle (CV) sales to 8,092 units in February 2025.
Mahindra & Mahindra added 1.06% after the company’s overall auto sales grew by 14.78% to 83,702 vehicles sold in February 2025 as against 72,923 vehicles sold in February 2024.
Tata Motors rose 0.09%. The company’s total sales tumbled 8.17% to 79,344 units in February 2025 as compared with 86,406 units in February 2024.
Maruti Suzuki India fell 1.48%. The car manufacturer announced that its total production increased 0.98% to 199,400 units in February 2025 as against 197,471 units recorded in February 2024.
Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) tumbled 1.75%. The company said that it has recorded total monthly sales of 58,727 units in February 2025, comprising domestic sales of 47,727 units and export sales of 11,000 units.
TVS Motor Company rallied 4.29% after the company’s total sales jumped 10% to 403,976 units in February 2025 as against 368,424 units in February 2024.
VST Tillers Tractors dropped 6.37% after the company’s total sales fell by 21.82% to 3,260 units in February 2025 from 4,170 units sold in February 2024.
Stocks in Spotlight:
Coffee Day Enterprises hit an upper circuit limit of 20% at Rs 25.65 after the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) dismissed a bankruptcy plea filed against the company by IDBI Trusteeship Services. The core of the legal dispute revolved around an alleged default of Rs 228 crore.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals added 2.77% after the US-based subsidiary, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Inc., USA announced the acquisition and launch of Acetylcysteine Injection, single-dose vials.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) rose 1.06% after the firm said that the company’s power transmission & distribution (PT&D) vertical has secured ‘large’ orders in India and abroad. The value of the contract, according to L&T's internal classification, ranges between Rs 2,500 crore and Rs 5,000 crore.
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) fell 1.63%. The company delivered a monthly cargo volume of 35.6 MMT in February 2025, marking a 3% increase on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
One 97 Communications (Paytm) advanced 1.38%. The company said that it has received show cause notice (SCN) from the Enforcement Directorate (ED), Government of India, for violating provisions of the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 (FEMA).
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) alleged that the company contravened certain provisions of FEMA between 2015 to 2019 in relation to its acquisition of two subsidiaries, Little Internet Private (LIPL) and Nearbuy India Private (NIPL), while Groupon, along with certain directors & officers.