The headline equity benchmarks ended with robust gains on Monday, rising for the sixth day in a row, fueled by strong foreign fund inflows that bolstered market sentiment and investor confidence. Banking stocks took the lead in the rally, while the rupee also strengthened against the dollar. Trading could remain volatile this week, with a slew of economic data expected from overseas regions. The Nifty ended above the 23,650 mark.
The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, surged 1,078.87 points, or 1.40%, to 77,984.38. The Nifty 50 index rallied 307.95 points, or 1.32%, to 23,658.35. In the six consecutive sessions, both the indices jumped 5.63% each.
In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index added 1.32%, and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index jumped 1.17%. The market breadth was strong.
The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, soared 8.94% to 13.70.
Among the sectoral indices, the Nifty PSU Bank index (up 3.18%), the Nifty Private Bank index (up 2.42%) and the Nifty Bank index (up 2.20%) outperformed the Nifty 50 index.
Meanwhile, the Nifty Media index (up 0.06%), the Nifty Healthcare Index (up 0.36%) and The Nifty FMCG index (up 0.47%) underperformed the Nifty 50 index.
Economy:
India's private sector economy ended the 2024/25 fiscal year on a strong footing, sustaining robust expansions in new business intakes and output, according to preliminary HSBC flash PMI data. Although the rates of growth softened from February, they remained well above their respective long-run averages. Outstanding business volumes continued to rise, supporting another round of job creation, while price trends were mixed.
The HSBC Flash India Composite Output Index marginally decreased from February's final reading of 58.8 to 58.6 in March. The latest figure was still above its long-run average of 54.7, indicating a sharp rate of expansion.
The HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI increased from 56.3 in February to 57.6 in March, signaling a notable improvement in operating conditions that was broadly aligned with the average for the 2024/25 fiscal year.
The HSBC Flash India Services PMI Business Activity Index dropped to 57.7 in March, down from the February final of 59.0.
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, said, "India’s manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in March, according to the flash PMI. The output index rose to its highest level since July 2024. Yet the margin squeeze on manufacturers intensified as input price inflation ticked up, while factory gate prices rose at the weakest rate in a year. The moderation in new export orders growth was also noteworthy amid tariff announcements."
Numbers to Track:
The yield on India's 10-year benchmark federal paper gained 1.86% to 6.743 as compared with the previous close of 6.620.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 85.6100, compared with its close of 85.9800 during the previous trading session.
MCX Gold futures for the 4 April 2025 settlement shed 0.02% to Rs 87,757.
The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.19% to 103.89.
The United States 10-year bond yield rose 0.89% to 4.290.
In the commodities market, Brent crude for May 2025 settlement gained 41 cents or 0.57% to $72.57 a barrel.
Global Markets:
US Dow Jones index futures rose 362 points, signaling a strong opening for US stocks today. Media reports suggest that President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariffs will be narrower and less stringent than initially feared, easing concerns about their economic impact.
European shares advanced on Monday as investors will be keeping an eye on preliminary purchasing managers’ index data from the U.K., France, Germany and the euro zone to get a gauge of business activity in the region’s manufacturing and services sectors.
Asian stocks ended mixed on Monday as investors braced for Trump’s looming April 2 tariff deadline.
In Japan, business activity shrank for the first time in five months. The au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in March, down from 49.0 in February, marking its ninth consecutive month of contraction. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dropped to 49.5 from 53.7, the first decline since mid-2024. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned of “rising instability” and urged nations to open up their markets.
On Friday, US market closed higher as Trump hinted at "flexibility" on tariffs, although he reaffirmed the April 2 deadline for reciprocal duties.
The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 5,667.56 points, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.52% to 17,784.05 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08% to 41,985.35 points.
Nike stock slipped over 5% after the fiscal fourth-quarter revenue estimate came in below analysts’ expectations.
While stocks have rebounded from oversold levels, investors remain cautious. Until there is clarity on the tariff situation—expected by April 2—the market’s upside potential will likely remain limited.