Geopolitical risks remain elevated due to ongoing conflicts, which pose significant risks to the global economic outlook, the economic survey stated. These risks can influence growth, inflation, financial markets, and supply chains. An intensification of the evolving conflicts in the Middle East, or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could lead to market repricing of sovereign risk in the affected regions and disrupt global energy markets. The oil market is well-supplied for now. However, any damage to energy infrastructure could tighten supply, adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook.
Heightened risks are also evidenced by other indices, such as the Geopolitical Economic Policy Uncertainty index, which remains elevated due to global concerns about economic policies, Economic survey noted. Similarly, the World Trade Uncertainty Index has risen, driven by trade tensions and policy shifts in major economies. Trade policy uncertainty has increased sharply in recent months, though it has not yet reached the levels seen in 2018-19.