Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties or OPEC stated in a latest monthly update for July that the 2024 global oil demand growth forecast remains at 2.2 million barrels per day or mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD oil demand in 2024 is expected to expand by around 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 2.1 mb/d. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, also unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The OECD oil demand is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by 1.7 mb/d.
Non-Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada and Brazil. In 2025, non-DoC liquids supply growth is forecast at 1.1 mb/d, also unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. Separately, DoC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d to average 8.3 mb/d in 2024, followed by an increase of about 25 tb/d, reaching 8.4 mb/d in 2025. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC dropped by 125 tb/d in June compared to the previous month, averaging about 40.80 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.