The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week ahead, influenced by a combination of domestic and global economic cues. The release of the final batch of Q2 earnings reports will also play a crucial role in shaping market trends. Additionally, the behavior of foreign and domestic institutional investors will be under close scrutiny.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 index is currently exhibiting a choppy short-term trend, suggesting continued consolidation in the near future. The 23,800 level is identified as the next key support level. Until the index decisively breaches the 24,500 mark, a bearish bias is likely to persist.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have continued their selling spree in November 2024, offloading shares worth over Rs 16,320 crore so far. This follows a massive sell-off of Rs 1,13,858 crore in October. The sustained FPI selling has added to the market's downward pressure.
Given the uncertain market conditions, a cautious approach with a focus on hedging is recommended. Investors may utilize this period to selectively accumulate quality stocks that are currently trading at attractive valuations.
Domestic Cues:
India's industrial production data for September will release on Tuesday, 12 November 2024. Industrial production in India edged down 0.1% year-on-year in August 2024, the first decline since October 2022, following a downwardly revised 4.7% rise in July.
India's Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate for October will release on Tuesday, 12 November 2024. The annual inflation rate in India rose to 5.49% in September of 2024 from 3.65% in the previous month, well above market estimates of 5%.
India's wholesale prices index (WPI)-based inflation rate for October will release on Thursday, 14 November 2024. India’s wholesale prices increased by 1.84% year-on-year in September 2024, accelerating from a four-month low of a 1.31% rise in the previous month, but slightly below market forecasts of a 1.9% gain. It marked the 11th consecutive month of wholesale inflation.
India's balance of trade for October will release on Friday, 15 November 2024. The merchandise trade deficit in India was at $20.8 billion in September of 2024, the lowest since April.
Global Cues:
United States Inflation data for October will release on Wednesday, 13 November 2024. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a sixth consecutive month to 2.4% in September 2024, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.5% in August.
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes items such as food and energy, edged higher to 3.3% in September of 2024 from the three-year low of 3.2% recorded in the two previous months.
United States Producer Price Inflation data for October will release on Thursday, 14 November 2024. Factory gate prices in the US were unchanged in September from August 2024, below the previous month's 0.2% uptick.
US Fed Chair Powell's speech is on Friday, 15 November 2024. The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September.
Japan's GDP growth rate for third quarter will release on Friday, 15 November 2024. Japan's GDP grew by 0.7% qoq in Q2 of 2024, compared with flash data and market estimates of a 0.8% rise and after a marginally revised 0.6% fall in Q1.
China's industrial production data for October will release on Friday, 15 November 2024. China's industrial production grew by 5.4% yoy in September 2024, accelerating from August's five-month low of 4.5%. It was the fastest expansion in industrial output since May, marking the 1st acceleration in five months, amid the government's efforts to spur growth.
China's retail sales data for October will release on Friday, 15 November 2024. China's retail sales climbed by 3.2% year-on-year in September 2024 from 2.1% gain in the previous month.