|Pre Budget 2012-13||Tuesday, March 13, 2012 14:34 Hrs IST|
PRE BUDGET REPORTS
Textiles: Cut excise duty on MMF, and increase TUFS allocation
The Indian Textiles Industry has an overwhelming presence in the economic life of the country. Textiles sector contributes 14% of industrial production, 4% of GDP and 10.63% of country's export earnings. It provides direct employment to over 35 million people - the second largest provider of employment after agriculture. Indian Textiles industry was growing at 3-4% in the last 6 decades. Under 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) it was projected to accelerate to a growth rate of 16% in value and should reach the value of USD 115 billion (exports USD 55 billion and domestic market USD 60 billion) by 2012. Exports are likely to reach USD 32 billion in 2011-12 and domestic market USD 55 billion.
The domestic textile industry comprises of 1608 spinning mills and 200 composite mills, with an installed capacity of 43.27 million spindles (of which 33.25 million spindles are in operation), 523,000 Open End Rotors (of which 384612 are operational) and 52,000 looms (of which only 14500 are under operations) in the organized sector along with another 1219 small scale spinning units with 4.89 million spindles and about 242023 Rotors in the small scale decentralized sector.
Globally, cotton prices have spurred up in the cotton 2010/11, thanks to the upsurge in demand from the leading consumers and exports. In India prices of leading variety of cotton – Shankar 6A shot up 61% from Rs 104 per Kg in September 10 to Rs 168 per kg in March 11. This sharp increase in the cotton prices has easily passed on by the spinning sector due to lower inventories and pent up demand till March 11. However since then demand eased both globally and domestically, as the downstream players were unable to pass on the sudden sharp rise in the raw material prices. With the dip in demand cotton prices witnessed free fall from the March 11 levels. In just two months, cotton prices fell sharply 22% to Rs 117 per Kg in May. Resultantly, spinners have piled up inventory at higher cotton prices and with sudden drop in demand; they have to undertake huge losses on higher value of inventory. With subdued demand cotton prices further eased to Rs 100 per kg in August 11.
In the current new cotton season 2011/12 (Oct – Sept), the cotton prices remained lower as the demand sentiments in the domestic market have not picked up. In the beginning of March 11, DGFT has notified ban on cotton exports with immediate effect on 5 March 12. The officials have noted that the India has shipped extra 10 lakh bales of cotton at 94 lakh bales exceeding CAB estimates of cotton exports at 84 lakh bales for full cotton year, in first five months only. The sharp rise in exports is expected to deplete the cotton stocks and also lower the availability of cotton for domestic mills. The cotton exports registrations stood at around 120 lakh bales as on 5 March 12 and thus the exportable surplus registered but not yet shipped was to the tune of 24 lakh bales. As on 4 March 12, cotton arrivals are to the tune of 233.76 lakh bales leading, nearly 50% of arrivals booked for exports. CAB estimated the cotton crop to be flat at 340 lakh bales and domestic consumption to decline by 8% to 250 lakh bales in CY11/12.
After the representations from all the leading cotton producing state governments on the price, the Government has took off ban on cotton exports and notified that – "Exports orders already registered with DGFT so far but not yet exported will be expeditiously scrutinized to ensure that their papers are in order and revalidated". To that extent, this is a partial roll back of ban on cotton exports as new registrations for the cotton exports will not given and exports of remaining 24 lakh bales with be strictly scrutinized before shipping. Thus, cotton exports for CY11/12 are expected to easily cross 100 lakh bales and deplete the ending stocks. The current prices of cotton at around Rs 94 per kg were conducive for the domestic millers and the industry can look forward for improving performance provided with - revival of demand.
Sharp volatility in the commodity prices has dented the competitiveness of the industry in FY12. While huge cotton price and spike in interest rates dumped the spinning industry in to losses in H1FY12, spike in the raw material prices and levy of 10% excise duty on branded garments have dented the consumer sentiment amidst increasing interest rate cycle for the garment industry. Further, the recent concession of custom duty free import given to Bangladesh and Nepal, apart from Bhutan and Maldives is adding pressure to the garment industry in India.
Faced with mounting losses the industry has separately represented the Government for some liberalization in the prudential norms for facilitating restructuring of long-term loans taken by the industry. However, RBI has rejected proposal of Textile Ministry to restructure around Rs 1,00,000 crore either by extension of moratorium period etc. According to the available statistics, total outstanding loans to textile industry by banking industry amounts to Rs 1,54,480 crore at end of January 11.
In this background list of textile related associations namely, Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, Federation of All India Textile Manufacturers' Association (FAITMA), Southern India Mills Association (SIMA) and Indian June Mills Association (IJMA) have appealed Government to consider the following requests ahead of Union Budget 2012-13.
Almost all the associations have requested for the extension of TUFS scheme for the 12th five year plan (starting FY13-17). TUFS was introduced in 1999 to catalyze investments in all the sub-sectors of textiles and jute industry by way of 5% interest reimbursement. Since its inception, Rs.11196 crore of subsidy has been released till FY11 of which Rs. 8883 crore. Thus, TUFS has catalyzed investments of Rs 2.08 lakh crore during its operational life span of over 11 years. However in April 11, the Government has launched restructured TUFS with an overall subsidy of Rs 1972 crore till end of FY12. This subsidy is expected to leverage an investment of Rs.46900 crore, with sectorial investment shares of 26% for spinning, 13% for weaving, 21% for processing, 8% for garmenting and 32% for others. According to the National Fiber Policy report, India requires around Rs 188000 crore of capex in Textile industry to keep up the demand during 2011-2020. Thus, encouraging capacity addition of weaving and garmenting sector will help to strengthen the loose links of the domestic textile industry and also improve cash flows.
Also "Neutral Fiber Policy" will help to give a level playing ground for MMF sector in a cotton dominated textile industry. Further, cut in the excise duty on branded apparels will also help in decreasing MRP of apparel and boost the demand.
Companies to Watch:
Vardhman Textiles, RSWM, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Alok Industries, JBF, Indorama Synthetics, Raymond etc
Textile Industry has reported faded performance in the nine months ended December 11 mainly on the back of sharp fall in the cotton cost and heavy inventories at higher rates and dampened demand. The MMF industry has also faced the wrath thanks to the spike in the raw material prices. As against global trend of MMF constituting more than 60% of world consumption; MMF in India accounts for around 40% of the fiber consumption. However, with the spike in the cotton prices, the industry is slowly shifting towards the MMF yarn or blended yarn. Excise duty cut on all the fibers to 4% will bring level field for the domestic textile Industry. Also, the cost of production in India is relatively higher than frontline players like China, Bangladesh etc, partly due to higher power and labour costs. This can be partly addressed if excise and customs duty on liquid fuels are removed / reduced. Further, cut in the customs duty on the textile machinery will also shift the industry to new technology machines and encourage capex facilitated by TUFS.
The sharp spike in the cotton cost last year has dented the demand across the sectors of textile industry in FY12. Partial roll back of cotton exports may drag ending stocks down by 68% can put upward pressure on the prices. However, the domestic prices are not factoring this effect and continue to ease. Thus, despite conducive cotton prices in the current market, what the industry is missing at this juncture is – "demand". Revival in domestic demand is need of the hour which can help the textile industry when the global countries are witnessing a slow down.